Early MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB 2017

It’s that time of the year again to break out season long predictions and with that come lots of totals trying to depict how teams will do this year. Here are some of my predictions from the Atlantis Sportsbook in Reno, Nevada.

Cubs 95.5: A repeat of a 103 win season probably won’t happen. But the Cubs return nearly everyone from last year’s pitching staff and a rock-solid core with a full season of Kyle Schwarber. Maybe the only knock could be the loss of Aroldis Chapman, but the bullpen still tallied a 3.56 ERA. Over

Indians 92.5: With the addition of slugger Edwin Encarnacion and the hopeful return of Michael Brantley, this pitching is elite enough to get over 92 wins, if they can stay healthy. Over

Dodgers 91.5: The Dodgers retain Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner, plus can get a full year out of Julio Urias. The Dodgers seem to always be banged up but keep plugged away with depth. Also, Clayton Kershaw every 5 days doesn’t hurt. I say they sneak in with 92 wins. Over

Nationals 90.5: Trea Turner is going to be a household name soon and probably Adam Eaton also. They had the 2nd highest run differential in baseball. Bullpen woes could hurt them, but this rotation is elite. I say 92 wins. Over

Red Sox 90.5: The Sox lose David Ortiz, but their lineup is still ridiculous, David Price could settle in in his second year and oh yeah, they added Chris Sale. Over

Mets 89.5: It’s another season of Yo in the Big Apple after he re-signed with the Mets. Every guy in this rotation seems to throw a million miles per hour, they could make a move at the deadline to push them into the Wild Card hunt. I say they just barely miss. Under

Astros 87.5 Astros are the hot pick this offseason, but I’ll go against the field and say they won’t hit the over here. On some days the offense will be scary and on other days they’ll be at the mercy of their own pitching staff. Under

Cardinals 87.5: Even with the Cubs blowing out the NL Central the Cards still were just one game out of reaching the playoffs, they add Dexter Fowler to an already balanced roster. Over

Giants 87.5: The addition of Mark Melancon gives the Giants one of the best all rounded rosters in baseball. The rotation is loaded and the likes of Buster Posey and Hunter Pence make up the sleeping giant that is the Giants lineup. Over

Blue Jays 86.5: The Blue Jays rotation is one of the most overlooked in baseball in my opinion. The Jays drop Encarnacion, but still have good enough of a lineup to hang around in the playoff conversation. Over

Rangers 86.5: A 95-win team a year ago, the Rangers return with a vet heavy lineup and a possible steady rotation. If the bullpen can stay on par they could have a shot to claim the AL West. Over

Mariners 85.5: The Mariners swapped players in and out this offseason making a number of moves, but I’m not sure their pitching can last and entire season and therefore come up just short. Under

Pirates 85.5: Much of the offseason was centered around Andrew McCutchen news, but it appears that was just smoke. My reason for going under here is that the Pirates get a loaded offer for McCutchen at the trade deadline after a mediocre first half of the season. Under

Tigers 85.5: The Tigers didn’t make any headline moves this offseason, in fact they hardly made any moves. It’s kind of the same story with them. Their offense will be on and off and possibly riddled with injures. The third worst bullpen ERA in the AL doesn’t help either. Under

Orioles 84.5: Maybe it’s just me, but I think the O’s are one of the safer teams in baseball. They could go 81-81 or win 89 games and I wouldn’t be shocked. The rotation is my biggest concern here. Under

Yankees 83.5: If their rotation stays healthy and consistent 85 wins could happen with a fairly low ceiling lineup at least until their prospects are ready to fully take over. Over

Royals 80.5: A so-so rotation with an ok lineup screams that a possible selloff could happen at the deadline. 4-5 players could be gone after this year and the Royals could get a boatload for Eric Hosmer and others if they sell them off. Under

Rockies 79.5: This was a tougher one, the Rockies scored the most runs in the National League last year and have four serviceable starting pitchers possibly. Coors Field never fails to conquer though, as the Rockies surrendered a 5.40 ERA in home games last year. Under

Diamondbacks 78.5: A 10-win jump for a team that didn’t really make a huge deal this offseason seems off. They should be better, but that seems like a reach. Under

Marlins 77.5: This rotation isn’t pretty and even with headliners like Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon, they still ranked 13th in runs scored last year in the NL. Under

Angels 76.5: This rotation is decent when they’re all healthy and they don’t have Jared Weaver anymore which is a plus. The Angels may not be horrible this year and three more wins than last year doesn’t seem that hard, but I just don’t see improvement from last year. Under

Rays 75.5: If you look at it in a way, the Rays quietly have a playoff rotation. The offense isn’t very pretty, but needing just 76 wins with this rotation seems doable. Over

Reds 73.5: The Reds offseason was thin in the acquisition department and they should have no means of competing this year. The dump off of Brandon Phillips and the way the rotation is panning out, 90 losses seems likely. Under

White Sox 73.5: The Sox won 78 games last year with Chris Sale and Adam Eaton and now of course they aren’t on the roster. With Jose Quintana and other vets possibly out the door soon, the White Sox could look like a Triple A team in the second half of the year. Under

Brewers 72.5: Brewers are as meh as you’re going to get this season. Jonathan Villar is quietly a stud, but it seems like the baseball world has been wondering when Ryan Bruan will be traded, it could be this year. Under

Phillies 72.5: Somehow the Phillies had the worst run differential in baseball at -186 and still won over 70 games. A quiet offseason headlined by the addition of Howie Kendrick, I say they buff out some scratches and sneak in above the 72 win mark. Over

Braves 71.5: Their rebuild probably won’t include a catastrophic turn around, but they’ve plugged in some decent vet arms. Also, a loaded farm system could help in the back half along with a steady lineup headlined by Freedie Freeman and Dansby Swanson. Over

Twins 70.5 This one confuses me, the Twins won 59 games last year, had the worst run differential in the American League at -167 and their biggest move this offseason was signing Jason Castro. Does that really make them 12 wins better? Under

Athletics 66.5: Is there a less recognizable team than the Padres? Well it could be the Athletics. The A’s don’t have any eye-popping numbers, but could just squeak by after winning 69 games last year. Over

Padres 64.5: It’s hard to think any MLB team could lose nearly 100 games before the season, but there are probably 11 people in America who could name the Padres rotation right now, send Wil Myers some help. Under